How the Obama Administration Will Divert Attention: A Prediction

History runs in cycles and patterns.

People who think such cycles can help us precisely forecast every turn of events are always disappointed, but those who ignore the patterns as if they can teach us nothing are missing important information as well.

My reading of the cycles makes me think that the Obama Administration may soon be at a turning point.

It may have reached a situation where blaming the Republicans won’t work anymore — it won’t deflect criticism from the White House, and it won’t effectively divert popular frustration.

This has already occurred at some level, as evidenced by a media that gave little emphasis to stories of scandal for several years and then suddenly invested huge resources into high levels of scrutiny — almost as if President Obama made somebody angry or lost the support of a powerful ally.

Conspiracy theories aside, historically, during a pivot like the one now occurring, the executive is left to choose between losing relevance or finding a bigger enemy.

I won’t be surprised if we see the White House’s agenda turn markedly international for some time ahead. In similar past turns of the cycles, we have seen significant international skirmishes, crises and even major military engagements.

As the 2014 midterm elections draw closer, we’ll certainly see the parties gear up their propaganda machines as they always do in national campaigns, but we may well see an international focus from the Administration that overshadows even their deep commitment to effective campaigning.

Things that today are simmering under the surface — such as North Korea, the Middle East, Africa, and even China or Russia, etc. — could suddenly take center stage one day and dominate the news for weeks. The surprising thing will be if this doesn’t occur.

In all this, it is essential for those who love freedom to keep their eyes on the ball. The real action is in government regulation and policy, which is more boring than the latest headline but frequently far more important.

The most valuable citizens are those who keep studying the fine print.

For example, what about drone use in the U.S., FISA courts, and federal agency overreach? The quickest way to mask abuses in these and other arenas is to divert the national attention to big, flashy world events.

The devil is in the details, and freedom is in the fine print. Fortunately, regular citizens can read as well as anyone else.

But will they? The answer will determine the future of freedom.